Dynamic Causality Between the Housing Boom and Technological Innovation in China: A Sub-Sample Rolling-Window Analysis

This paper employs bootstrap rolling-window tests to investigate the dynamic causal relationship between the housing boom (HB) and technological innovation (TI) in China. Through sub-sample analysis, we reveal the dual impact of the HB on TI: during periods dominated by the liquidity effect, the HB exerts a positive influence on TI, whereas during periods dominated by the crowding-out effect, the HB negatively affects TI. Furthermore, this study identifies the significant positive effect of TI on the HB, suggesting that TI serves as a predictor of real estate development trends. This research not only provides empirical evidence on the bidirectional interaction between the HB and TI, but also offers valuable insights for policymakers in terms of balancing the development of the real estate market and TI.

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