District Heating Deployment and Energy-Saving Measures to Decarbonise the Building Stock in 100% Renewable Energy Systems

Achieving a zero-emission building heating sector requires numerous strategies and detailed energy planning, in order to identify the optimal decarbonisation pathway. This work aims to assess the impact of district heating expansion and the implementation of energy-saving measures on the decarbonisation of the Italian building stock by 2050, analysing their combined impact, reciprocal effects, and technical–economic implications on the entire national energy system. The scenarios have been implemented and simulated with the H2RES software, a long-term energy planning optimisation model, built for the Italian national energy system. Results indicate that it is possible to decarbonise the heating system in an efficient and cost-effective manner by the year 2040. Heat pumps represent the optimal technology at both centralised and decentralised levels. District heating expansion is a priority for the decarbonisation of the building stock, allowing us to reduce costs, exploit thermal storage systems and provide system flexibility. In the best scenario, 40% of the Italian heat demand can be supplied by fourth-generation district heating. Energy-saving measures can reduce heat demand and primary energy but at higher annual costs and with a significant increase in investment. The combined simulation of the strategies within an optimisation model of the entire energy system enables the accurate assessment of the real impact of the various measures, considering their reciprocal effects and technical–economic implications.

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