Analyzing Cost Overrun Risks in Construction Projects: A Multi-Stakeholder Perspective Using Fuzzy Group Decision-Making and K-Means Clustering

The current research investigates cost overrun factors in structural projects, focusing on the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region using Egypt as a model. A systematic literature review was conducted, analyzing 405 research papers published between 2000 and 2024, from which 69 relevant papers were selected to identify 48 key factors contributing to cost overrun. Using K-means clustering, these factors were grouped into three clusters based on their probability and impact, which were classified for their risk levels. To ensure robust analysis, a survey was conducted to gather expert opinions, resulting in 369 valid responses from owners, contractors/subcontractors, and management firms/consultants. The fuzzy group decision-making approach (FGDMA) was conducted to rank all 48 factors, offering a detailed assessment of their relative importance. Based on these rankings, the top 20 factors were identified for analysis to examine variations in stakeholder priorities, capturing differences in perspectives among multi-stakeholders. Sensitivity analysis and Tornado charts explored the critical variations among stakeholders, with management firms/consultants and owners prioritizing design-related risks, such as inconsistencies and delays in approvals, while contractors/subcontractors focused more on material waste. This novel integration presents a structured approach for analyzing, prioritizing, and mitigating cost overrun risks, offering a comprehensive framework that provides practical insights for stakeholders to improve cost and risk management strategies.

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