Assessing the Risk Probability of the Embankment Seismic Damage Using Monte Carlo Method

There are few systematic studies on the risk probability assessment, although embankment seismic damages are extremely serious. Meanwhile, retaining walls and other retaining structures play positive roles in improving the embankment seismic performance, but relevant quantitative study is rarely reported. In particular, there are few existing studies on the seismic damage characteristics of the embankment fill-soil foundation system and the retaining structure-embankment fill-soil foundation system under different seismic actions. In view of this, the Xi’an-Baoji expressway K1125 + 470 embankment was taken as the research object, the risk probability assessment of the embankment seismic damage was conducted on the basis of the seismic fragility and seismic hazard assessment, the positive role of the retaining wall in improving the embankment seismic performance was verified, and the seismic damage evolution processes of the retaining wall-embankment fill-soil foundation system and the embankment fill-soil foundation system were analyzed. The research results show that the risk probabilities of the severe damage and destruction of the embankment fill-soil foundation system are 29.07% and 7.62% in the next 50 years, while of the retaining wall-embankment fill-soil foundation system are 19.30% and 3.46% and are reduced by 33.61% and 54.60%, respectively. The influence of the retaining wall on the embankment seismic performance mainly occurs at the middle stage of a violent earthquake, but the seismic damages of the retaining wall itself are also very serious, and the engineering disturbance of the retaining wall is reduced greatly or even lost completely at the final stage of the violent earthquake.

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